Monday, October 19, 2015

Probabilistic

Food for thought:

- What is the probability that your oline can score on any given possession?  Your dline?  How can your practice plan/strategy maximize these?  How is this question different in the short term and long term?

- A player doinks an incut.  Statistically, this will happen.  Is this an outlier?  Or is it an indicator that strategy/practice must be tweaked?  Can I ignore this, or does it need to be addressed?

- Your team loses a game.  Was it just a bad game?  Did you land on the wrong side of probability this time?

- Your team wins a game.  Was it an outlier?  Can you do it again?  How many would you take in a 10 game series?

- Halftime.  Your dline is generating great pressure and getting close on lots of stuff.  But no turns yet.  Does an adjustment need to be made?  Should you stay the course and see if the dice start to fall in your favor?

- Your zone set makes your opponent throw 20 passes to score.  None are contested and the opposing handlers are executing flawlessly.  Should we continue to throw zone in hopes that they'll drop one?

- It's getting windier and is gusty.  Passes that were 100% before are now maybe 90%.  How should our offense and defensive strategies change?

- The oline puts it in the big box, it floats, and one of our players skies a pack for the score.  Was it a good decision and just bad execution?  Was it a bad decision and we just got bailed out by our athlete?  Was that us using our strengths, or did we just get away with one?

- How do I maximize our probability of success?

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